The Iran War and the Shockwave Hitting Global Shipping

The Trigger: February 28, 2026

On the morning of February 28, 2026, coordinated U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran ignited one of the most severe maritime crises the world has seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. Within hours, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) broadcast warnings to all vessels in the Strait of Hormuz that passage was "not allowed," and by that same evening, vessel traffic through the strait had fallen by approximately 70%.

The conflict directly involves the United States, Israel, Iran, and several Gulf states, and it has sent an immediate and powerful shockwave through every corner of global shipping — from oil tankers and container lines to air cargo and overland freight.

The Strait of Hormuz: The World's Jugular

The Strait of Hormuz is not just a waterway — it is the single most critical maritime chokepoint on the planet. According to a 2025 UNCTAD report, it facilitates 11% of global maritime trade volume, and over 30 million TEUs of containerized port traffic pass through its vicinity annually. It also handles approximately 20% of the world's oil consumption.

Since the conflict began, oil shipments west of the Strait collapsed from 20.1 million barrels per day to just 2.7 million barrels per day by mid-March — an 87% drop. During just the first week of March, more than 700 vessels were backed up at the chokepoint, impacting roughly 10% of the entire world container fleet.

Major Carriers in Crisis Mode

The response from the world's biggest shipping lines was immediate and sweeping. All five of the largest carriers by market share — MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO Shipping, and Hapag-Lloyd — issued operational alerts within hours of the initial strikes.

• MSC instructed all vessels in or en route to the Gulf to "proceed to designated safe shelter areas," then suspended all bookings for worldwide cargo to the Middle East

• Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd (Gemini partners) rerouted selected services away from the Suez Canal and Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope

• Hapag-Lloyd introduced booking restrictions and imposed a War Risk Surcharge

• Plans by multiple carriers to resume Red Sea services in 2026 — which had been suspended since late 2023 due to Houthi attacks — were immediately and indefinitely shelved.

Rerouting Around Africa: The New Reality

With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea effectively off-limits, the Cape of Good Hope has become the only viable east-west corridor for most Western-aligned carriers. This detour adds approximately 3,500 nautical miles and 10 to 14 extra days to standard transit times on Asia-Europe routes.

The longer voyage means significantly higher bunker fuel consumption, reduced vessel turnaround frequency, and growing congestion at southern African transshipment and bunkering ports like Durban and Cape Town. Schedule reliability has deteriorated as lines juggle extended rotations and weather around the Cape.

The Cost Explosion

The financial impact is already being passed down the supply chain at every level:

• VLCC (supertanker) rates to ship oil from the Middle East to China surged over 94% in a single day, reaching a record $423,736 per day

• Carriers have implemented Conflict Surcharges (CS), War Risk Surcharges (WRS), and Bunker Adjustment Factors (BAF) ranging from $2,000 to $4,000 per container

• Brent crude oil hovered near $90 a barrel in early March, pushing fuel costs higher across all transport modes — ocean, air, and road

• Marine insurers, including major P&I Clubs like Skuld, North, and the American Club, withdrew war risk coverage for vessels operating in the region effective March 5, further spiking shipping rates

Approximately 135,000 TEUs were estimated in transit in the region, representing nearly $4 billion in cargo value exposed to insurance and delay risk.

Beyond Oil: The Wider Supply Chain Hit

The crisis is not limited to the energy sector. The Iran war is disrupting supply chains for a much wider range of goods:

• Pharmaceuticals from India routed through the Gulf

• Semiconductors from Asia transiting via the Strait

• Fertilizers derived from Gulf-produced oil and gas, affecting global agriculture

• Automotive shipments, with longer routings, higher surcharges, and growing container imbalances directly impacting vehicle importers

Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen warned at TPM26 that roughly 2 million TEUs will be directly impacted by the conflict based on cargo aboard vessels or booked within the next 90 days. Even if the situation is resolved quickly, bottlenecks and elevated costs will persist for months.

The Houthi Factor: A Second Front

Adding further complexity, the Houthis in Yemen — an Iran-backed militia — have re-entered the conflict, raising renewed fears of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. This effectively means that both major east-west maritime corridors — the Suez Canal/Red Sea route and the Hormuz/Persian Gulf route — are simultaneously compromised, something the industry has never faced before at this scale.

Bigger Than the Red Sea Crisis?

Industry experts are unequivocal: this is the biggest threat to global shipping and supply chains since COVID-19. While the Red Sea/Houthi crisis of 2023–2024 forced carriers to reroute around Africa, it affected primarily container shipping on specific lanes. The Iran war is different — it simultaneously disrupts all shipping segments: container, dry bulk, and oil tanker.

"If this crisis continues over an extended period, it could trigger a global energy shock, with rising oil and gas prices amplifying shipping costs and cascading through supply chains worldwide." — Industry analyst, Morningstar/MarketWatch

What This Means for Shippers and Logistics Professionals

For anyone operating in freight forwarding, logistics, or international trade, the key takeaways right now are:

1. Expect higher rates — War risk surcharges, BAFs, and conflict surcharges are now standard across all major lanes touching the Middle East

2. Plan for longer transit times — Add 10–14 days to any Asia-Europe or Asia-Mediterranean estimate

3. Review your contracts — Force majeure clauses covering war, sanctions, and transportation disturbances are being activated across the industry

4. Diversify supply chains — Companies relying on single-source Gulf suppliers for energy, chemicals, or raw materials are the most exposed

5. Monitor insurance coverage — War risk insurance has been withdrawn in the region; verify your cargo coverage before booking

The situation remains fluid. Contract negotiations that were underway at TPM26 stalled immediately after the conflict began, as carriers reassessed the entire global supply-demand balance for 2026. The Iran war has, in the words of Lars Jensen, "fundamentally changed the market" — and the shipping industry, still recovering from the Houthi crisis, now faces a longer and more complex road ahead.